USC

Conference:	P12
Expected RPI:	34.0
Current RPI:	34
Expected SOS:	39
Current SOS:	39
Current Record:	23-11
Expected Record:	23-11
Current Conf Record:	14-7
Expected Conf Record:	14-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	8-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	7-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	6-1
Current OOC Record:	9-4
Expected OOC Record:	9-4
Expected OOC RPI:	61
Expected OOC SOS:	57

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
23-11	34.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for USC.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	Cal St. Fullerton (131.0)	BW	H	84-42	W	100%
11-13	North Dakota St. (210.0)	Sum	H	75-65	W	100%
11-19	Vanderbilt (132.0)	SEC	A	89-93	W	100%
11-22	Lehigh (214.0)	Pat	H	88-63	W	100%
11-26	Texas A&M (29.0)	SEC	H	59-75	L	0%
12-2	SMU (113.0)	Amer	A	72-55	L	0%
12-8	Oklahoma (49.0)	B12	N	83-85	L	0%
12-14	Santa Clara (264.0)	WCC	H	82-59	W	100%
12-17	UC Santa Barbara (127.0)	BW	H	98-87	W	100%
12-19	Princeton (226.0)	Ivy	H	93-103	L	0%
12-22	Akron (227.0)	MAC	N	84-53	W	100%
12-23	Middle Tennessee (33.0)	CUSA	N	89-84	W	100%
12-25	New Mexico St. (35.0)	WAC	N	72-77	W	100%
12-29	Washington (71.0)	P12	H	81-88	L	0%
12-31	Washington St. (179.0)	P12	H	89-71	W	100%
1-4	California (216.0)	P12	A	62-80	W	100%
1-7	Stanford (86.0)	P12	A	77-76	L	0%
1-10	Colorado (82.0)	P12	H	70-58	W	100%
1-14	Utah (59.0)	P12	H	84-67	W	100%
1-18	Oregon (72.0)	P12	A	70-75	W	100%
1-20	Oregon St. (137.0)	P12	A	67-74	W	100%
1-24	Stanford (86.0)	P12	H	69-64	W	100%
1-28	California (216.0)	P12	H	77-59	W	100%
2-3	UCLA (36.0)	P12	A	82-79	L	0%
2-8	Arizona St. (66.0)	P12	A	80-78	L	0%
2-10	Arizona (13.0)	P12	A	81-67	L	0%
2-15	Oregon (72.0)	P12	H	72-70	W	100%
2-17	Oregon St. (137.0)	P12	H	72-59	W	100%
2-21	Colorado (82.0)	P12	A	64-75	W	100%
2-24	Utah (59.0)	P12	A	58-74	W	100%
3-3	UCLA (36.0)	P12	H	72-83	L	0%
3-8	Oregon St. (137.0)	P12	N	61-48	W	100%
3-9	Oregon (72.0)	P12	N	74-54	W	100%
3-10	Arizona (13.0)	P12	N	75-61	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

USC's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

USC's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against USC.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
USC	P12	26.34	26.34	66.03	66.03	8.44	8.44
Oregon	P12	5.15	5.15	70.97	70.97	2.16	2.16
Oregon St.	P12	5.07	5.07	55.17	55.17	0.52	0.52
Arizona	P12	3.89	3.89	78.12	78.12	2.19	2.19
UCLA	P12	3.78	3.78	63.33	63.33	1.01	1.01
Stanford	P12	3.68	3.68	54.84	54.84	0.36	0.36
Colorado	P12	3.65	3.65	56.67	56.67	0.49	0.49
California	P12	3.65	3.65	27.59	27.59	-1.64	-1.64
Utah	P12	3.64	3.64	67.86	67.86	1.30	1.30
Arizona St.	P12	2.36	2.36	63.33	63.33	0.63	0.63
Washington	P12	2.34	2.34	61.29	61.29	0.53	0.53
Washington St.	P12	2.34	2.34	40.00	40.00	-0.47	-0.47
UC Santa Barbara	BW	1.57	1.57	72.41	72.41	0.70	0.70
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	1.57	1.57	64.29	64.29	0.45	0.45
Texas A&M	SEC	1.56	1.56	61.29	61.29	0.35	0.35
Princeton	Ivy	1.54	1.54	40.74	40.74	-0.29	-0.29
Vanderbilt	SEC	1.54	1.54	38.71	38.71	-0.35	-0.35
North Dakota St.	Sum	1.54	1.54	42.86	42.86	-0.22	-0.22
Oklahoma	B12	1.54	1.54	56.67	56.67	0.20	0.20
Middle Tennessee	CUSA	1.52	1.52	79.31	79.31	0.89	0.89
SMU	Amer	1.51	1.51	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Akron	MAC	1.50	1.50	43.33	43.33	-0.20	-0.20
Lehigh	Pat	1.50	1.50	53.57	53.57	0.11	0.11
New Mexico St.	WAC	1.47	1.47	86.21	86.21	1.06	1.06
Santa Clara	WCC	1.47	1.47	35.71	35.71	-0.42	-0.42
Long Beach St.	BW	0.35	0.35	41.94	41.94	-0.06	-0.06
Cal Poly	BW	0.29	0.29	24.14	24.14	-0.15	-0.15
UC Irvine	BW	0.24	0.24	48.48	48.48	-0.01	-0.01
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.19	0.19	45.45	45.45	-0.02	-0.02
Portland St.	BSky	0.18	0.18	56.67	56.67	0.02	0.02
Hawaii	BW	0.18	0.18	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
UC Davis	BW	0.17	0.17	66.67	66.67	0.06	0.06
Saint Mary's	WCC	0.17	0.17	84.85	84.85	0.12	0.12
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.17	0.17	33.33	33.33	-0.06	-0.06
Seattle	WAC	0.17	0.17	56.67	56.67	0.02	0.02
Kansas	B12	0.16	0.16	79.41	79.41	0.10	0.10
Alabama	SEC	0.16	0.16	55.88	55.88	0.02	0.02
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.16	0.16	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Connecticut	Amer	0.15	0.15	43.75	43.75	-0.02	-0.02
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.15	0.15	14.29	14.29	-0.11	-0.11
UC Riverside	BW	0.15	0.15	24.14	24.14	-0.08	-0.08
San Diego	WCC	0.15	0.15	56.67	56.67	0.02	0.02
San Francisco	WCC	0.14	0.14	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Denver	Sum	0.14	0.14	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Cal St. Bakersfield	WAC	0.14	0.14	33.33	33.33	-0.05	-0.05
New Mexico	MWC	0.14	0.14	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Kentucky	SEC	0.14	0.14	70.59	70.59	0.06	0.06
Ball St.	MAC	0.14	0.14	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Colorado St.	MWC	0.14	0.14	32.26	32.26	-0.05	-0.05
BYU	WCC	0.13	0.13	70.59	70.59	0.05	0.05
Pepperdine	WCC	0.12	0.12	16.13	16.13	-0.08	-0.08
UTEP	CUSA	0.12	0.12	33.33	33.33	-0.04	-0.04
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.12	0.12	80.00	80.00	0.07	0.07
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.12	0.12	24.14	24.14	-0.06	-0.06
Mississippi	SEC	0.12	0.12	37.50	37.50	-0.03	-0.03
Pacific	WCC	0.12	0.12	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Missouri	SEC	0.12	0.12	61.29	61.29	0.03	0.03
Kansas St.	B12	0.12	0.12	66.67	66.67	0.04	0.04
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.12	0.12	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.12	0.12	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Kent St.	MAC	0.12	0.12	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Wichita St.	Amer	0.12	0.12	78.12	78.12	0.07	0.07
Florida	SEC	0.11	0.11	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
Cincinnati	Amer	0.11	0.11	88.24	88.24	0.09	0.09
Fort Wayne	Sum	0.10	0.10	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Portland	WCC	0.10	0.10	24.14	24.14	-0.05	-0.05
Utah Valley	WAC	0.10	0.10	65.52	65.52	0.03	0.03
South Dakota	Sum	0.10	0.10	73.33	73.33	0.05	0.05
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.10	0.10	8.00	8.00	-0.08	-0.08
San Diego St.	MWC	0.09	0.09	67.74	67.74	0.03	0.03
Georgia	SEC	0.09	0.09	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Marist	MAAC	0.09	0.09	19.35	19.35	-0.06	-0.06
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.09	0.09	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
UT Rio Grande Valley	WAC	0.09	0.09	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.09	0.09	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
TCU	B12	0.09	0.09	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Arkansas	SEC	0.09	0.09	67.65	67.65	0.03	0.03
St. John's	BE	0.09	0.09	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.09	0.09	13.33	13.33	-0.07	-0.07
UNLV	MWC	0.09	0.09	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Montana	BSky	0.09	0.09	77.42	77.42	0.05	0.05
LSU	SEC	0.09	0.09	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.09	0.09	44.12	44.12	-0.01	-0.01
Boise St.	MWC	0.09	0.09	73.33	73.33	0.04	0.04
Harvard	Ivy	0.08	0.08	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Yale	Ivy	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Lafayette	Pat	0.08	0.08	30.00	30.00	-0.03	-0.03
Boston University	Pat	0.08	0.08	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Butler	BE	0.08	0.08	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Miami FL	ACC	0.08	0.08	70.97	70.97	0.03	0.03
Gonzaga	WCC	0.07	0.07	88.24	88.24	0.06	0.06
Chicago St.	WAC	0.07	0.07	3.33	3.33	-0.07	-0.07
Grand Canyon	WAC	0.07	0.07	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Southern Miss	CUSA	0.07	0.07	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Marshall	CUSA	0.07	0.07	69.70	69.70	0.03	0.03
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.07	0.07	12.50	12.50	-0.05	-0.05
Western Kentucky	CUSA	0.07	0.07	69.70	69.70	0.03	0.03
Auburn	SEC	0.07	0.07	78.12	78.12	0.04	0.04
Belmont	OVC	0.07	0.07	72.73	72.73	0.03	0.03
Buffalo	MAC	0.07	0.07	75.76	75.76	0.04	0.04
West Virginia	B12	0.07	0.07	70.59	70.59	0.03	0.03
Xavier	BE	0.07	0.07	84.85	84.85	0.05	0.05
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.07	0.07	31.03	31.03	-0.03	-0.03
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.07	0.07	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Saint Louis	A10	0.07	0.07	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Southern Utah	BSky	0.07	0.07	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Tennessee	SEC	0.07	0.07	75.76	75.76	0.04	0.04
Wyoming	MWC	0.07	0.07	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
UMBC	AE	0.07	0.07	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	25.81	25.81	-0.03	-0.03
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	15.62	15.62	-0.04	-0.04
DePaul	BE	0.06	0.06	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Fresno St.	MWC	0.06	0.06	63.33	63.33	0.02	0.02
Brown	Ivy	0.05	0.05	38.46	38.46	-0.01	-0.01
Columbia	Ivy	0.05	0.05	26.92	26.92	-0.02	-0.02
Cornell	Ivy	0.05	0.05	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.05	0.05	23.08	23.08	-0.03	-0.03
Penn	Ivy	0.05	0.05	74.19	74.19	0.03	0.03
Monmouth	MAAC	0.05	0.05	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
American	Pat	0.05	0.05	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Army	Pat	0.05	0.05	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Bucknell	Pat	0.05	0.05	73.53	73.53	0.02	0.02
Colgate	Pat	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Holy Cross	Pat	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Loyola MD	Pat	0.05	0.05	26.67	26.67	-0.02	-0.02
Missouri St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Navy	Pat	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
North Dakota	BSky	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.05	0.05	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
Western Illinois	Sum	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Pittsburgh	ACC	0.05	0.05	25.00	25.00	-0.02	-0.02
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.05	0.05	16.67	16.67	-0.03	-0.03
Idaho	BSky	0.05	0.05	68.97	68.97	0.02	0.02
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.05	0.05	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Louisiana Tech	CUSA	0.05	0.05	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
UAB	CUSA	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
UMKC	WAC	0.05	0.05	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
Utah St.	MWC	0.05	0.05	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Virginia	ACC	0.05	0.05	93.94	93.94	0.04	0.04
Davidson	A10	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
North Texas	CUSA	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
UTSA	CUSA	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Baylor	B12	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Bowling Green	MAC	0.05	0.05	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.05	58.62	58.62	0.01	0.01
Idaho St.	BSky	0.05	0.05	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Iowa St.	B12	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Miami OH	MAC	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Ohio	MAC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Texas	B12	0.05	0.05	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Texas Tech	B12	0.05	0.05	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
Toledo	MAC	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
VCU	A10	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Western Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Wofford	SC	0.05	0.05	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Air Force	MWC	0.05	0.05	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Creighton	BE	0.05	0.05	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Detroit	Horz	0.05	0.05	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Drake	MVC	0.05	0.05	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Iowa	B10	0.05	0.05	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
Mercer	SC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Michigan	B10	0.05	0.05	79.41	79.41	0.03	0.03
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Quinnipiac	MAAC	0.05	0.05	36.36	36.36	-0.01	-0.01
South Carolina	SEC	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	26.67	26.67	-0.02	-0.02
Wisconsin	B10	0.05	0.05	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
East Carolina	Amer	0.04	0.04	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Houston	Amer	0.04	0.04	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
North Carolina	ACC	0.04	0.04	71.43	71.43	0.02	0.02
Northeastern	CAA	0.04	0.04	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
Ohio St.	B10	0.04	0.04	75.00	75.00	0.02	0.02
South Florida	Amer	0.04	0.04	31.25	31.25	-0.02	-0.02
Tulane	Amer	0.04	0.04	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
UCF	Amer	0.04	0.04	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.04	0.04	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Purdue	B10	0.04	0.04	82.35	82.35	0.03	0.03
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
George Washington	A10	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.03	0.03	24.24	24.24	-0.01	-0.01
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Nevada	MWC	0.03	0.03	79.41	79.41	0.01	0.01
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
San Jose St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	10.34	10.34	-0.02	-0.02
Siena	MAAC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.03	0.03	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.03	0.03	80.00	80.00	0.02	0.02
Stetson	ASun	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
UNC Wilmington	CAA	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Valparaiso	MVC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Charlotte	CUSA	0.02	0.02	17.86	17.86	-0.02	-0.02
FIU	CUSA	0.02	0.02	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Florida Atlantic	CUSA	0.02	0.02	32.14	32.14	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois	B10	0.02	0.02	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Montana St.	BSky	0.02	0.02	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Murray St.	OVC	0.02	0.02	82.76	82.76	0.02	0.02
Old Dominion	CUSA	0.02	0.02	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Rice	CUSA	0.02	0.02	17.24	17.24	-0.02	-0.02
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.02	0.02	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Appalachian St.	SB	0.02	0.02	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Central Michigan	MAC	0.02	0.02	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Chattanooga	SC	0.02	0.02	25.81	25.81	-0.01	-0.01
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.02	0.02	32.35	32.35	-0.01	-0.01
Dayton	A10	0.02	0.02	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
IUPUI	Horz	0.02	0.02	32.14	32.14	-0.01	-0.01
Longwood	BSth	0.02	0.02	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.02	0.02	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Northwestern	B10	0.02	0.02	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.02	0.02	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.02	0.02	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Austin Peay	OVC	0.02	0.02	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Houston Baptist	Slnd	0.02	0.02	10.71	10.71	-0.02	-0.02
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.02	0.02	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Kentucky	Horz	0.02	0.02	68.97	68.97	0.01	0.01
Penn St.	B10	0.02	0.02	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Providence	BE	0.02	0.02	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Radford	BSth	0.02	0.02	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.02	0.02	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Seton Hall	BE	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
UNC Asheville	BSth	0.02	0.02	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.02	0.02	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Memphis	Amer	0.02	0.02	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
New Orleans	Slnd	0.02	0.02	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.02	0.02	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Temple	Amer	0.02	0.02	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Tulsa	Amer	0.02	0.02	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01