Utah

Conference:	P12
Expected RPI:	59.0
Current RPI:	59
Expected SOS:	62
Current SOS:	62
Current Record:	19-11
Expected Record:	19-11
Current Conf Record:	11-8
Expected Conf Record:	11-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	6-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	6-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	5-0
Current OOC Record:	8-3
Expected OOC Record:	8-3
Expected OOC RPI:	99
Expected OOC SOS:	208

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
19-11	59.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Utah.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	Prairie View A&M (247.0)	SWAC	H	83-62	W	100%
11-13	Mississippi Valley St. (349.0)	SWAC	H	91-51	W	100%
11-16	Missouri (43.0)	SEC	H	77-59	W	100%
11-20	Mississippi (141.0)	SEC	N	83-74	W	100%
11-22	UNLV (134.0)	MWC	N	85-58	L	0%
11-24	Eastern Washington (122.0)	BSky	H	85-69	W	100%
12-2	Hawaii (213.0)	BW	H	80-60	W	100%
12-5	Butler (41.0)	BE	A	81-69	L	0%
12-9	Utah St. (152.0)	MWC	N	77-67	W	100%
12-16	BYU (67.0)	WCC	A	77-65	L	0%
12-20	Northwestern St. (342.0)	Slnd	H	84-62	W	100%
12-29	Oregon (72.0)	P12	A	56-66	W	100%
12-31	Oregon St. (137.0)	P12	A	64-66	W	100%
1-4	Arizona (13.0)	P12	H	82-94	L	0%
1-7	Arizona St. (66.0)	P12	H	77-80	L	0%
1-11	UCLA (36.0)	P12	A	83-64	L	0%
1-14	USC (34.0)	P12	A	84-67	L	0%
1-18	Washington (71.0)	P12	H	70-62	W	100%
1-21	Washington St. (179.0)	P12	H	82-69	W	100%
1-25	Arizona St. (66.0)	P12	A	77-80	W	100%
1-27	Arizona (13.0)	P12	A	74-73	L	0%
2-2	Colorado (82.0)	P12	A	67-55	L	0%
2-8	Stanford (86.0)	P12	H	75-60	W	100%
2-10	California (216.0)	P12	H	77-43	W	100%
2-15	Washington (71.0)	P12	A	58-70	W	100%
2-17	Washington St. (179.0)	P12	A	70-77	W	100%
2-22	UCLA (36.0)	P12	H	84-78	W	100%
2-24	USC (34.0)	P12	H	58-74	L	0%
3-3	Colorado (82.0)	P12	H	64-54	W	100%
3-8	Oregon (72.0)	P12	N	66-68	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Utah's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Utah's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Utah.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Utah	P12	26.19	26.19	62.31	62.31	6.45	6.45
Oregon	P12	4.24	4.24	65.62	65.62	1.32	1.32
Arizona	P12	4.18	4.18	78.12	78.12	2.35	2.35
Colorado	P12	4.18	4.18	53.33	53.33	0.28	0.28
USC	P12	4.13	4.13	65.62	65.62	1.29	1.29
UCLA	P12	4.07	4.07	66.67	66.67	1.36	1.36
Washington	P12	4.06	4.06	66.67	66.67	1.35	1.35
Arizona St.	P12	4.05	4.05	65.52	65.52	1.26	1.26
Washington St.	P12	4.05	4.05	41.38	41.38	-0.70	-0.70
Oregon St.	P12	2.59	2.59	51.61	51.61	0.08	0.08
Stanford	P12	2.57	2.57	56.25	56.25	0.32	0.32
California	P12	2.49	2.49	26.67	26.67	-1.16	-1.16
UNLV	MWC	1.84	1.84	59.38	59.38	0.35	0.35
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	1.82	1.82	46.88	46.88	-0.11	-0.11
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	1.79	1.79	12.90	12.90	-1.33	-1.33
Eastern Washington	BSky	1.77	1.77	58.06	58.06	0.29	0.29
Utah St.	MWC	1.77	1.77	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Mississippi	SEC	1.72	1.72	38.71	38.71	-0.39	-0.39
Missouri	SEC	1.72	1.72	63.33	63.33	0.46	0.46
BYU	WCC	1.72	1.72	69.70	69.70	0.68	0.68
Hawaii	BW	1.69	1.69	55.56	55.56	0.19	0.19
Butler	BE	1.67	1.67	59.38	59.38	0.31	0.31
Northwestern St.	Slnd	1.67	1.67	8.33	8.33	-1.39	-1.39
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.26	0.26	44.12	44.12	-0.03	-0.03
New Mexico	MWC	0.25	0.25	54.55	54.55	0.02	0.02
Portland St.	BSky	0.23	0.23	56.67	56.67	0.03	0.03
UC Irvine	BW	0.22	0.22	48.48	48.48	-0.01	-0.01
Long Beach St.	BW	0.21	0.21	41.94	41.94	-0.03	-0.03
Colorado St.	MWC	0.21	0.21	32.26	32.26	-0.07	-0.07
San Diego St.	MWC	0.21	0.21	67.74	67.74	0.07	0.07
Texas A&M	SEC	0.20	0.20	62.50	62.50	0.05	0.05
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.19	0.19	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.18	0.18	40.00	40.00	-0.04	-0.04
Air Force	MWC	0.18	0.18	34.48	34.48	-0.06	-0.06
Boise St.	MWC	0.18	0.18	73.33	73.33	0.08	0.08
UC Davis	BW	0.17	0.17	66.67	66.67	0.06	0.06
Seattle	WAC	0.16	0.16	56.67	56.67	0.02	0.02
Idaho St.	BSky	0.16	0.16	42.86	42.86	-0.02	-0.02
St. John's	BE	0.16	0.16	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Xavier	BE	0.16	0.16	84.85	84.85	0.11	0.11
Nevada	MWC	0.16	0.16	79.41	79.41	0.09	0.09
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.16	0.16	37.50	37.50	-0.04	-0.04
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.15	0.15	13.33	13.33	-0.11	-0.11
Saint Mary's	WCC	0.15	0.15	84.85	84.85	0.11	0.11
San Francisco	WCC	0.15	0.15	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Pacific	WCC	0.15	0.15	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.15	0.15	25.81	25.81	-0.07	-0.07
Gonzaga	WCC	0.15	0.15	88.24	88.24	0.12	0.12
Fresno St.	MWC	0.15	0.15	63.33	63.33	0.04	0.04
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.14	0.14	62.07	62.07	0.03	0.03
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.13	0.13	70.00	70.00	0.05	0.05
Kentucky	SEC	0.13	0.13	70.59	70.59	0.05	0.05
Oklahoma	B12	0.13	0.13	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
SMU	Amer	0.13	0.13	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Kansas	B12	0.13	0.13	79.41	79.41	0.08	0.08
Montana	BSky	0.13	0.13	77.42	77.42	0.07	0.07
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.13	0.13	61.29	61.29	0.03	0.03
Southern Utah	BSky	0.13	0.13	36.67	36.67	-0.03	-0.03
Princeton	Ivy	0.13	0.13	42.86	42.86	-0.02	-0.02
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.13	0.13	25.00	25.00	-0.06	-0.06
Wyoming	MWC	0.13	0.13	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.13	0.13	33.33	33.33	-0.04	-0.04
Alabama	SEC	0.13	0.13	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
San Diego	WCC	0.13	0.13	56.67	56.67	0.02	0.02
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.11	0.11	14.29	14.29	-0.08	-0.08
Cal Poly	BW	0.11	0.11	24.14	24.14	-0.06	-0.06
Kansas St.	B12	0.11	0.11	66.67	66.67	0.04	0.04
Arkansas	SEC	0.11	0.11	67.65	67.65	0.04	0.04
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.11	0.11	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Idaho	BSky	0.11	0.11	68.97	68.97	0.04	0.04
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.11	0.11	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.10	0.10	31.03	31.03	-0.04	-0.04
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.10	0.10	9.68	9.68	-0.08	-0.08
Creighton	BE	0.10	0.10	64.52	64.52	0.03	0.03
Grambling St.	SWAC	0.10	0.10	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.10	0.10	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
Providence	BE	0.10	0.10	61.76	61.76	0.02	0.02
Southern	SWAC	0.10	0.10	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Cal St. Bakersfield	WAC	0.10	0.10	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
San Jose St.	MWC	0.10	0.10	10.34	10.34	-0.08	-0.08
DePaul	BE	0.10	0.10	35.48	35.48	-0.03	-0.03
Connecticut	Amer	0.10	0.10	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.10	0.10	41.38	41.38	-0.02	-0.02
Santa Clara	WCC	0.10	0.10	34.48	34.48	-0.03	-0.03
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.09	0.09	80.00	80.00	0.06	0.06
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.09	0.09	63.33	63.33	0.02	0.02
UC Riverside	BW	0.09	0.09	24.14	24.14	-0.04	-0.04
Rice	CUSA	0.08	0.08	17.24	17.24	-0.06	-0.06
Texas	B12	0.08	0.08	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
North Dakota	BSky	0.08	0.08	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
Georgia	SEC	0.08	0.08	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Auburn	SEC	0.08	0.08	78.12	78.12	0.04	0.04
South Carolina	SEC	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Tennessee	SEC	0.08	0.08	75.76	75.76	0.04	0.04
Florida	SEC	0.08	0.08	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
South Dakota	Sum	0.08	0.08	73.33	73.33	0.04	0.04
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.08	0.08	80.00	80.00	0.05	0.05
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Denver	Sum	0.08	0.08	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia St.	SB	0.08	0.08	68.75	68.75	0.03	0.03
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.08	0.08	28.57	28.57	-0.03	-0.03
Weber St.	BSky	0.08	0.08	60.71	60.71	0.02	0.02
Seton Hall	BE	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Villanova	BE	0.08	0.08	88.24	88.24	0.06	0.06
Akron	MAC	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Middle Tennessee	CUSA	0.08	0.08	76.67	76.67	0.04	0.04
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.07	0.07	83.33	83.33	0.05	0.05
Purdue	B10	0.07	0.07	82.35	82.35	0.05	0.05
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.07	0.07	32.00	32.00	-0.02	-0.02
New Orleans	Slnd	0.07	0.07	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.07	0.07	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.06	0.06	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.06	0.06	30.77	30.77	-0.02	-0.02
Utah Valley	WAC	0.05	0.05	65.52	65.52	0.02	0.02
IUPUI	Horz	0.05	0.05	32.14	32.14	-0.02	-0.02
Longwood	BSth	0.05	0.05	13.33	13.33	-0.04	-0.04
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
UTEP	CUSA	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
LSU	SEC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Illinois	B10	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Belmont	OVC	0.05	0.05	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
Cincinnati	Amer	0.05	0.05	88.24	88.24	0.04	0.04
Detroit	Horz	0.05	0.05	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Drake	MVC	0.05	0.05	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Iowa	B10	0.05	0.05	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
Kent St.	MAC	0.05	0.05	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Mercer	SC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Michigan	B10	0.05	0.05	79.41	79.41	0.03	0.03
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.05	0.05	24.14	24.14	-0.03	-0.03
Quinnipiac	MAAC	0.05	0.05	36.36	36.36	-0.01	-0.01
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.05	0.05	16.67	16.67	-0.03	-0.03
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	26.67	26.67	-0.02	-0.02
Wisconsin	B10	0.05	0.05	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Montana St.	BSky	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Saint Louis	A10	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Illinois St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Georgetown	BE	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Marquette	BE	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Northeastern	CAA	0.05	0.05	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
Ohio St.	B10	0.05	0.05	75.00	75.00	0.03	0.03
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Ball St.	MAC	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	15.62	15.62	-0.03	-0.03
Lehigh	Pat	0.05	0.05	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Pepperdine	WCC	0.05	0.05	16.13	16.13	-0.03	-0.03
Portland	WCC	0.05	0.05	24.14	24.14	-0.03	-0.03
UMBC	AE	0.05	0.05	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
Abilene Christian	Slnd	0.03	0.03	44.44	44.44	-0.00	-0.00
Houston Baptist	Slnd	0.03	0.03	10.71	10.71	-0.03	-0.03
Incarnate Word	Slnd	0.03	0.03	12.50	12.50	-0.03	-0.03
Lamar	Slnd	0.03	0.03	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Davidson	A10	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Howard	MEAC	0.03	0.03	25.81	25.81	-0.01	-0.01
Miami FL	ACC	0.03	0.03	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Troy	SB	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Green Bay	Horz	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Iowa St.	B12	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Miami OH	MAC	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
North Florida	ASun	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
UCF	Amer	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
VCU	A10	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Wagner	NEC	0.03	0.03	70.00	70.00	0.01	0.01
West Virginia	B12	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Wichita St.	Amer	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Wofford	SC	0.03	0.03	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Bradley	MVC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
Duquesne	A10	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Grand Canyon	WAC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.03	0.03	80.65	80.65	0.02	0.02
Loyola Chicago	MVC	0.03	0.03	84.38	84.38	0.02	0.02
Marist	MAAC	0.03	0.03	19.35	19.35	-0.02	-0.02
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Samford	SC	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
UAB	CUSA	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.03	0.03	24.24	24.24	-0.01	-0.01
Furman	SC	0.03	0.03	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
Houston	Amer	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.01	0.01
Maryland	B10	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Morehead St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	22.22	22.22	-0.01	-0.01
New Hampshire	AE	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.03	0.03	71.43	71.43	0.01	0.01
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Ohio	MAC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Tulsa	Amer	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Valparaiso	MVC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Western Illinois	Sum	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Massachusetts	A10	0.02	0.02	39.39	39.39	-0.01	-0.01
Niagara	MAAC	0.02	0.02	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
UT Arlington	SB	0.02	0.02	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01