Washington

Conference:	P12
Expected RPI:	71.0
Current RPI:	71
Expected SOS:	57
Current SOS:	57
Current Record:	20-12
Expected Record:	20-12
Current Conf Record:	10-9
Expected Conf Record:	10-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	2-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	5-7
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	6-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	6-0
Current OOC Record:	10-3
Expected OOC Record:	10-3
Expected OOC RPI:	29
Expected OOC SOS:	26

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
20-12	71.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Washington.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	Belmont (81.0)	OVC	H	86-82	W	100%
11-12	Eastern Washington (122.0)	BSky	H	79-69	W	100%
11-16	Providence (32.0)	BE	N	70-77	L	0%
11-17	Virginia Tech (61.0)	ACC	N	79-103	L	0%
11-24	Seattle (165.0)	WAC	H	89-84	W	100%
11-26	UC Davis (102.0)	BW	H	77-70	W	100%
11-28	Kennesaw St. (301.0)	ASun	H	85-71	W	100%
12-3	Nebraska Omaha (284.0)	Sum	H	86-73	W	100%
12-6	Kansas (5.0)	B12	A	65-74	W	100%
12-10	Gonzaga (21.0)	WCC	H	70-97	L	0%
12-17	Loyola Marymount (258.0)	WCC	H	80-77	W	100%
12-19	Bethune Cookman (288.0)	MEAC	H	106-55	W	100%
12-22	Montana (76.0)	BSky	H	66-63	W	100%
12-29	USC (34.0)	P12	A	81-88	W	100%
12-31	UCLA (36.0)	P12	A	74-53	L	0%
1-6	Washington St. (179.0)	P12	A	65-70	W	100%
1-11	California (216.0)	P12	H	66-56	W	100%
1-13	Stanford (86.0)	P12	H	64-73	L	0%
1-18	Utah (59.0)	P12	A	70-62	L	0%
1-20	Colorado (82.0)	P12	A	62-72	W	100%
1-28	Washington St. (179.0)	P12	H	80-62	W	100%
2-1	Arizona St. (66.0)	P12	H	68-64	W	100%
2-3	Arizona (13.0)	P12	H	78-75	W	100%
2-8	Oregon (72.0)	P12	A	65-40	L	0%
2-10	Oregon St. (137.0)	P12	A	97-94	L	0%
2-15	Utah (59.0)	P12	H	58-70	L	0%
2-17	Colorado (82.0)	P12	H	82-59	W	100%
2-22	Stanford (86.0)	P12	A	94-78	L	0%
2-24	California (216.0)	P12	A	51-68	W	100%
3-1	Oregon St. (137.0)	P12	H	79-77	W	100%
3-3	Oregon (72.0)	P12	H	64-72	L	0%
3-7	Oregon St. (137.0)	P12	N	66-69	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Washington's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Washington's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Washington.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Washington	P12	26.23	26.23	57.97	57.97	4.18	4.18
Oregon St.	P12	5.32	5.32	48.28	48.28	-0.18	-0.18
Washington St.	P12	3.98	3.98	41.38	41.38	-0.69	-0.69
Oregon	P12	3.89	3.89	62.50	62.50	0.97	0.97
Stanford	P12	3.89	3.89	51.61	51.61	0.13	0.13
California	P12	3.81	3.81	27.59	27.59	-1.71	-1.71
Utah	P12	3.80	3.80	60.71	60.71	0.81	0.81
Colorado	P12	3.79	3.79	56.67	56.67	0.50	0.50
USC	P12	2.49	2.49	69.70	69.70	0.98	0.98
Arizona	P12	2.44	2.44	81.82	81.82	1.55	1.55
Arizona St.	P12	2.41	2.41	66.67	66.67	0.80	0.80
UCLA	P12	2.41	2.41	64.52	64.52	0.70	0.70
Seattle	WAC	1.74	1.74	58.62	58.62	0.30	0.30
Eastern Washington	BSky	1.74	1.74	58.06	58.06	0.28	0.28
Loyola Marymount	WCC	1.70	1.70	34.48	34.48	-0.53	-0.53
Kansas	B12	1.66	1.66	81.82	81.82	1.06	1.06
Montana	BSky	1.66	1.66	80.00	80.00	1.00	1.00
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	1.64	1.64	55.17	55.17	0.17	0.17
Gonzaga	WCC	1.64	1.64	87.88	87.88	1.24	1.24
Kennesaw St.	ASun	1.61	1.61	29.63	29.63	-0.66	-0.66
UC Davis	BW	1.61	1.61	68.97	68.97	0.61	0.61
Belmont	OVC	1.61	1.61	75.00	75.00	0.81	0.81
Providence	BE	1.59	1.59	60.61	60.61	0.34	0.34
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	1.59	1.59	25.00	25.00	-0.79	-0.79
Virginia Tech	ACC	1.56	1.56	64.52	64.52	0.45	0.45
Portland St.	BSky	0.29	0.29	56.67	56.67	0.04	0.04
Long Beach St.	BW	0.27	0.27	41.94	41.94	-0.04	-0.04
San Francisco	WCC	0.24	0.24	53.12	53.12	0.02	0.02
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.23	0.23	61.29	61.29	0.05	0.05
Saint Mary's	WCC	0.22	0.22	84.85	84.85	0.16	0.16
Pacific	WCC	0.22	0.22	41.94	41.94	-0.04	-0.04
UC Riverside	BW	0.21	0.21	24.14	24.14	-0.11	-0.11
Southern Utah	BSky	0.20	0.20	36.67	36.67	-0.05	-0.05
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.18	0.18	14.29	14.29	-0.13	-0.13
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.18	0.18	62.07	62.07	0.04	0.04
Cal Poly	BW	0.18	0.18	24.14	24.14	-0.09	-0.09
BYU	WCC	0.17	0.17	70.59	70.59	0.07	0.07
Idaho St.	BSky	0.15	0.15	42.86	42.86	-0.02	-0.02
Portland	WCC	0.15	0.15	24.14	24.14	-0.08	-0.08
Denver	Sum	0.15	0.15	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
San Diego St.	MWC	0.15	0.15	67.74	67.74	0.05	0.05
North Dakota	BSky	0.15	0.15	33.33	33.33	-0.05	-0.05
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.15	0.15	13.33	13.33	-0.11	-0.11
San Diego	WCC	0.15	0.15	56.67	56.67	0.02	0.02
Saint Louis	A10	0.15	0.15	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.15	0.15	31.03	31.03	-0.06	-0.06
Kansas St.	B12	0.14	0.14	66.67	66.67	0.05	0.05
St. John's	BE	0.14	0.14	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Xavier	BE	0.14	0.14	84.85	84.85	0.10	0.10
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.14	0.14	44.12	44.12	-0.02	-0.02
Oklahoma	B12	0.14	0.14	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
South Dakota	Sum	0.13	0.13	73.33	73.33	0.06	0.06
Montana St.	BSky	0.13	0.13	36.67	36.67	-0.03	-0.03
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.13	0.13	70.00	70.00	0.05	0.05
UC Irvine	BW	0.13	0.13	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Butler	BE	0.13	0.13	60.61	60.61	0.03	0.03
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.13	0.13	80.00	80.00	0.08	0.08
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.13	0.13	16.67	16.67	-0.08	-0.08
Idaho	BSky	0.12	0.12	68.97	68.97	0.05	0.05
Pepperdine	WCC	0.12	0.12	16.13	16.13	-0.08	-0.08
Santa Clara	WCC	0.12	0.12	34.48	34.48	-0.04	-0.04
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.12	0.12	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.12	0.12	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
Creighton	BE	0.12	0.12	64.52	64.52	0.03	0.03
Jacksonville	ASun	0.11	0.11	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Hawaii	BW	0.10	0.10	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
UT Rio Grande Valley	WAC	0.10	0.10	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Lipscomb	ASun	0.10	0.10	68.97	68.97	0.04	0.04
Drake	MVC	0.10	0.10	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.10	0.10	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.10	0.10	83.33	83.33	0.07	0.07
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.10	0.10	41.38	41.38	-0.02	-0.02
Cal St. Bakersfield	WAC	0.10	0.10	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
UNLV	MWC	0.10	0.10	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
New Mexico	MWC	0.10	0.10	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.10	0.10	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.10	0.10	15.62	15.62	-0.07	-0.07
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.10	0.10	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Wyoming	MWC	0.10	0.10	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
TCU	B12	0.10	0.10	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Colorado St.	MWC	0.09	0.09	32.26	32.26	-0.03	-0.03
DePaul	BE	0.09	0.09	35.48	35.48	-0.03	-0.03
Villanova	BE	0.09	0.09	88.24	88.24	0.07	0.07
Stetson	ASun	0.08	0.08	28.57	28.57	-0.04	-0.04
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.08	0.08	28.57	28.57	-0.03	-0.03
Utah Valley	WAC	0.08	0.08	65.52	65.52	0.02	0.02
Mercer	SC	0.08	0.08	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.08	0.08	16.67	16.67	-0.05	-0.05
Mississippi	SEC	0.08	0.08	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Louisville	ACC	0.08	0.08	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Utah St.	MWC	0.08	0.08	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Detroit	Horz	0.07	0.07	20.00	20.00	-0.04	-0.04
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.07	0.07	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Tech	B12	0.07	0.07	72.73	72.73	0.03	0.03
IUPUI	Horz	0.07	0.07	32.14	32.14	-0.03	-0.03
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.07	0.07	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Iowa	B10	0.07	0.07	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
Kent St.	MAC	0.07	0.07	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Marist	MAAC	0.07	0.07	19.35	19.35	-0.04	-0.04
Boise St.	MWC	0.07	0.07	73.33	73.33	0.03	0.03
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.07	0.07	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Kentucky	SEC	0.07	0.07	70.59	70.59	0.03	0.03
Morehead St.	OVC	0.07	0.07	22.22	22.22	-0.04	-0.04
North Carolina	ACC	0.07	0.07	71.43	71.43	0.03	0.03
Houston Baptist	Slnd	0.07	0.07	10.71	10.71	-0.06	-0.06
Florida	SEC	0.07	0.07	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Ohio St.	B10	0.07	0.07	75.00	75.00	0.04	0.04
Connecticut	Amer	0.07	0.07	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.07	0.07	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Texas	B12	0.07	0.07	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Texas A&M	SEC	0.07	0.07	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
West Virginia	B12	0.07	0.07	70.59	70.59	0.03	0.03
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.06	0.06	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
NJIT	ASun	0.06	0.06	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
North Florida	ASun	0.06	0.06	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
USC Upstate	ASun	0.06	0.06	10.71	10.71	-0.04	-0.04
Fort Wayne	Sum	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Western Illinois	Sum	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Florida St.	ACC	0.05	0.05	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Chicago St.	WAC	0.05	0.05	3.33	3.33	-0.05	-0.05
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.05	0.05	24.24	24.24	-0.03	-0.03
Grambling St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Grand Canyon	WAC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	12.50	12.50	-0.04	-0.04
Missouri	SEC	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	8.00	8.00	-0.04	-0.04
UMKC	WAC	0.05	0.05	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Radford	BSth	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	26.67	26.67	-0.02	-0.02
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
UTEP	CUSA	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
VCU	A10	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Wichita St.	Amer	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Wofford	SC	0.05	0.05	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Georgia St.	SB	0.05	0.05	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
Pittsburgh	ACC	0.05	0.05	25.00	25.00	-0.02	-0.02
Weber St.	BSky	0.05	0.05	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01
Howard	MEAC	0.05	0.05	25.81	25.81	-0.02	-0.02
Incarnate Word	Slnd	0.05	0.05	12.50	12.50	-0.04	-0.04
Air Force	MWC	0.05	0.05	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Duke	ACC	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Miami FL	ACC	0.05	0.05	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
Notre Dame	ACC	0.05	0.05	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Quinnipiac	MAAC	0.05	0.05	36.36	36.36	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.05	0.05	93.94	93.94	0.04	0.04
Boston College	ACC	0.05	0.05	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Syracuse	ACC	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Austin Peay	OVC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.05	0.05	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Murray St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	82.76	82.76	0.03	0.03
Northeastern	CAA	0.05	0.05	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.05	0.05	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
Middle Tennessee	CUSA	0.05	0.05	76.67	76.67	0.02	0.02
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	25.81	25.81	-0.02	-0.02
Ball St.	MAC	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Baylor	B12	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Fresno St.	MWC	0.05	0.05	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Georgetown	BE	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Iowa St.	B12	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Marquette	BE	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Seton Hall	BE	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
SMU	Amer	0.05	0.05	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Georgia Southern	SB	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Hofstra	CAA	0.03	0.03	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Samford	SC	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
Yale	Ivy	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Arkansas St.	SB	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Boston University	Pat	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	6.67	6.67	-0.02	-0.02
Florida Atlantic	CUSA	0.03	0.03	32.14	32.14	-0.01	-0.01
Hampton	MEAC	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Lamar	Slnd	0.03	0.03	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	32.00	32.00	-0.01	-0.01
Nevada	MWC	0.03	0.03	79.41	79.41	0.02	0.02
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
North Texas	CUSA	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
South Florida	Amer	0.03	0.03	31.25	31.25	-0.01	-0.01
UT Arlington	SB	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Longwood	BSth	0.03	0.03	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
Penn St.	B10	0.03	0.03	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Cincinnati	Amer	0.02	0.02	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02
Clemson	ACC	0.02	0.02	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Michigan	B10	0.02	0.02	79.41	79.41	0.01	0.01
Presbyterian	BSth	0.02	0.02	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
The Citadel	SC	0.02	0.02	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Wake Forest	ACC	0.02	0.02	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Wisconsin	B10	0.02	0.02	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Green Bay	Horz	0.02	0.02	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Milwaukee	Horz	0.02	0.02	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.02	0.02	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.02	0.02	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Western Kentucky	CUSA	0.02	0.02	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Akron	MAC	0.02	0.02	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Alabama	SEC	0.02	0.02	55.88	55.88	0.00	0.00
Brown	Ivy	0.02	0.02	38.46	38.46	-0.01	-0.01
Houston	Amer	0.02	0.02	78.79	78.79	0.01	0.01
Lehigh	Pat	0.02	0.02	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Massachusetts	A10	0.02	0.02	39.39	39.39	-0.00	-0.00
Minnesota	B10	0.02	0.02	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Nebraska	B10	0.02	0.02	68.75	68.75	0.01	0.01
Oakland	Horz	0.02	0.02	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Princeton	Ivy	0.02	0.02	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
Purdue	B10	0.02	0.02	82.35	82.35	0.01	0.01
Rhode Island	A10	0.02	0.02	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Rider	MAAC	0.02	0.02	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.02	0.02	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Stony Brook	AE	0.02	0.02	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Toledo	MAC	0.02	0.02	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
UMBC	AE	0.02	0.02	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01