2016 NCAA Tournament odds
	Here are the probabilities (Based on Sagarin's PREDICTOR) that each of the 68 tournament teams reaches each round (along with the probability of winning it all). There are two types of probabilites: UNCONDITIONAL and CONDITIONAL. CONDITIONAL probabilities represent the chance that a team reaches a round GIVEN THAT IT REACHED THE PREVIOUS ROUND. Probabilites are also shown by region.
	UNCONDITIONAL PROBABILITIES OF REACHING EACH ROUND
	team	conf	seed	region	2nd round	3rd round	Sweet 16	Elite 8	Final Four	Finals	Champ	1 time out of:
1	Michigan St.	B10	2	MW	100.0	99.0	89.0	72.8	46.5	28.3	18.4	5
2	Kansas	B12	1	S	100.0	99.9	84.7	67.3	44.8	25.7	16.5	6
3	North Carolina	ACC	1	E	100.0	99.7	87.1	53.6	33.2	22.1	11.3	9
4	West Virginia	B12	3	E	100.0	89.8	74.9	54.3	29.7	19.4	9.7	10
5	Virginia	ACC	1	MW	100.0	99.9	80.3	49.2	25.1	13.2	7.5	13
6	Oklahoma	B12	2	W	100.0	97.0	78.7	50.9	31.9	15.1	6.4	16
7	Villanova	BE	2	S	100.0	98.7	68.4	43.7	22.4	10.9	6.1	16
8	Purdue	B10	5	MW	100.0	91.5	64.2	33.0	15.4	7.4	3.9	26
9	Duke	ACC	4	W	100.0	92.6	63.1	39.3	20.4	8.6	3.2	32
10	Kentucky	SEC	4	E	100.0	93.7	52.1	23.7	12.6	7.2	3.0	33
11	Texas A&M	SEC	3	W	100.0	96.0	68.5	32.8	17.7	6.9	2.3	43
12	Indiana	B10	5	E	100.0	95.0	47.0	19.9	9.9	5.4	2.1	49
13	Xavier	BE	2	E	100.0	96.7	65.7	27.6	10.3	4.9	1.6	62
14	Oregon	P12	1	W	100.0	99.7	64.7	31.6	14.1	4.9	1.5	67
15	Miami FL	ACC	3	S	100.0	97.2	49.9	21.1	8.2	3.0	1.3	79
16	Arizona	P12	6	S	100.0	56.1	29.5	12.8	5.1	1.9	0.8	119
17	Maryland	B10	5	S	100.0	88.1	56.2	16.8	6.7	2.1	0.8	126
18	Iowa	B10	7	S	100.0	90.0	31.0	14.6	5.3	1.7	0.7	146
19	Baylor	B12	5	W	100.0	72.4	29.6	14.6	5.8	1.7	0.5	222
20	Iowa St.	B12	4	MW	100.0	89.8	33.1	11.5	3.6	1.1	0.4	249
21	Gonzaga	WCC	11	MW	100.0	61.6	37.1	10.0	3.5	1.1	0.4	256
22	Utah	P12	3	MW	100.0	87.7	42.5	9.6	2.8	0.8	0.2	436
23	Cincinnati	Amer	9	W	100.0	64.8	26.0	10.2	3.6	0.9	0.2	478
24	California	P12	4	S	100.0	77.1	36.1	8.5	2.8	0.7	0.2	481
25	Vanderbilt	SEC	11	S	52.7	23.8	11.4	4.4	1.6	0.5	0.2	486
26	Texas	B12	6	W	100.0	74.6	26.8	8.8	3.3	0.8	0.2	606
27	Connecticut	Amer	9	S	100.0	67.7	12.5	6.0	1.9	0.5	0.1	678
28	Wichita St.	MVC	11	S	47.3	20.1	9.1	3.3	1.1	0.3	0.1	798
29	Butler	BE	9	MW	100.0	66.0	15.4	5.2	1.4	0.4	0.1	940
30	Pittsburgh	ACC	10	E	100.0	55.8	20.2	5.8	1.4	0.5	0.1	1,103
31	VCU	A10	10	W	100.0	65.0	15.7	5.6	1.9	0.4	0.1	1,437
32	Seton Hall	BE	6	MW	100.0	38.4	18.9	3.6	0.9	0.2	0.1	1,958
33	Notre Dame	ACC	6	E	100.0	54.6	11.9	4.4	0.9	0.3	0.0	2,056
34	Michigan	B10	11	E	69.6	35.8	8.1	3.1	0.7	0.2	0.0	2,541
35	Wisconsin	B10	7	E	100.0	44.2	13.8	3.4	0.7	0.2	0.0	3,312
36	Syracuse	ACC	10	MW	100.0	54.8	6.4	2.4	0.5	0.1	0.0	5,204
37	USC	P12	8	E	100.0	56.6	8.1	1.8	0.4	0.1	0.0	5,594
38	Saint Joseph's	A10	8	W	100.0	35.2	9.3	2.4	0.6	0.1	0.0	8,811
39	Dayton	A10	7	MW	100.0	45.2	4.4	1.5	0.3	0.0	0.0	14,332
40	Yale	Ivy	12	W	100.0	27.6	6.0	1.7	0.3	0.0	0.0	19,620
41	Providence	BE	9	E	100.0	43.4	4.8	0.8	0.2	0.0	0.0	23,348
42	Texas Tech	B12	8	MW	100.0	34.0	4.3	0.9	0.1	0.0	0.0	26,178
43	Colorado	P12	8	S	100.0	32.3	2.8	0.9	0.2	0.0	0.0	27,981
44	Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	14	E	100.0	10.2	4.0	1.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	33,232
45	Oregon St.	P12	7	W	100.0	35.0	5.1	1.2	0.3	0.0	0.0	34,899
46	Northern Iowa	MVC	11	W	100.0	25.4	4.1	0.6	0.1	0.0	0.0	149,950
47	Hawaii	BW	13	S	100.0	22.9	5.1	0.4	0.0	0.0	0.0	227,730
48	Tulsa	Amer	11	E	30.4	9.6	1.1	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	317,240
49	Arkansas Little Rock	SB	12	MW	100.0	8.5	1.9	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	597,630
50	South Dakota St.	Sum	12	S	100.0	11.9	2.6	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	2,266,900
51	UNC Wilmington	CAA	13	W	100.0	7.4	1.3	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	2,700,200
52	Stony Brook	AE	13	E	100.0	6.3	0.6	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	6,263,300
53	Temple	Amer	10	S	100.0	10.0	0.5	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	10,562,000
54	Fresno St.	MWC	14	MW	100.0	12.3	1.5	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	16,657,000
55	Iona	MAAC	13	MW	100.0	10.2	0.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	18,819,000
56	Chattanooga	SC	12	E	100.0	5.0	0.3	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	52,503,000
57	Cal St. Bakersfield	WAC	15	W	100.0	3.0	0.5	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	55,193,000
58	Green Bay	Horz	14	W	100.0	4.0	0.5	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	175,790,000
59	Middle Tennessee	CUSA	15	MW	100.0	1.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	347,070,000
60	Weber St.	BSky	15	E	100.0	3.3	0.3	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	1,399,700,000
61	UNC Asheville	BSth	15	S	100.0	1.3	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	4,705,400,000
62	Buffalo	MAC	14	S	100.0	2.8	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	8,216,400,000
63	Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	16	E	78.5	0.3	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	763,290,000,000
64	Southern	SWAC	16	W	64.1	0.3	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	398,950,000,000,000
65	Austin Peay	OVC	16	S	100.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	1,175,000,000,000,000
66	Hampton	MEAC	16	MW	100.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	9,304,000,000,000,000
67	Holy Cross	Pat	16	W	35.9	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	417,360,000,000,000,000
68	Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	16	E	21.5	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	1,723,800,000,000,000,000
	CONDITIONAL PROBABILITIES OF REACHING EACH ROUND
	EAST
	team	conf	seed	region	2nd round	3rd round	Sweet 16	Elite 8	Final Four	Finals	Champ
	North Carolina	ACC	1	E	100.0	99.7	87.3	61.6	61.9	66.7	50.9
	Xavier	BE	2	E	100.0	96.7	67.9	42.1	37.1	48.2	32.7
	West Virginia	B12	3	E	100.0	89.8	83.5	72.5	54.6	65.5	49.7
	Kentucky	SEC	4	E	100.0	93.7	55.6	45.6	52.9	57.6	41.5
	Indiana	B10	5	E	100.0	95.0	49.4	42.4	49.7	54.2	38.3
	Notre Dame	ACC	6	E	100.0	54.6	21.8	37.2	20.9	29.8	17.7
	Wisconsin	B10	7	E	100.0	44.2	31.2	24.4	19.4	28.1	16.4
	USC	P12	8	E	100.0	56.6	14.3	22.1	24.1	26.8	15.5
	Providence	BE	9	E	100.0	43.4	11.0	17.6	19.6	21.8	12.0
	Pittsburgh	ACC	10	E	100.0	55.8	36.3	28.7	23.5	33.0	20.1
	Michigan	B10	11	E	69.6	51.4	22.7	38.5	21.8	31.0	18.6
	Tulsa	Amer	11	E	30.4	31.7	11.4	21.5	10.1	16.0	8.3
	Chattanooga	SC	12	E	100.0	5.0	6.5	4.7	6.2	6.7	3.0
	Stony Brook	AE	13	E	100.0	6.3	9.9	6.7	8.8	9.6	4.6
	Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	14	E	100.0	10.2	38.9	26.3	13.1	20.1	10.9
	Weber St.	BSky	15	E	100.0	3.3	8.5	3.4	1.7	3.3	1.3
	Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	16	E	78.5	0.3	5.9	0.9	1.3	1.4	0.5
	Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	16	E	21.5	0.0	1.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.0
	MIDWEST
	team	conf	seed	region	2nd round	3rd round	Sweet 16	Elite 8	Final Four	Finals	Champ
	Virginia	ACC	1	MW	100.0	99.9	80.3	61.3	50.9	52.7	57.0
	Michigan St.	B10	2	MW	100.0	99.0	89.9	81.7	64.0	60.8	65.0
	Utah	P12	3	MW	100.0	87.7	48.5	22.7	29.3	26.9	30.2
	Iowa St.	B12	4	MW	100.0	89.8	36.9	34.7	31.1	31.7	35.4
	Purdue	B10	5	MW	100.0	91.5	70.2	51.3	46.7	48.2	52.4
	Seton Hall	BE	6	MW	100.0	38.4	49.2	19.0	24.7	22.6	25.5
	Dayton	A10	7	MW	100.0	45.2	9.7	33.5	17.2	15.6	17.8
	Texas Tech	B12	8	MW	100.0	34.0	12.7	20.9	15.7	15.3	17.5
	Butler	BE	9	MW	100.0	66.0	23.3	33.9	26.1	26.4	29.6
	Syracuse	ACC	10	MW	100.0	54.8	11.8	37.9	20.3	18.5	21.0
	Gonzaga	WCC	11	MW	100.0	61.6	60.3	27.0	34.5	31.9	35.5
	Arkansas Little Rock	SB	12	MW	100.0	8.5	22.4	10.5	9.4	8.8	10.2
	Iona	MAAC	13	MW	100.0	10.2	7.0	5.8	5.2	4.6	5.4
	Fresno St.	MWC	14	MW	100.0	12.3	11.8	4.0	4.9	4.3	5.0
	Middle Tennessee	CUSA	15	MW	100.0	1.0	14.8	8.3	3.0	2.6	3.1
	Hampton	MEAC	16	MW	100.0	0.1	1.1	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.2
	SOUTH
	team	conf	seed	region	2nd round	3rd round	Sweet 16	Elite 8	Final Four	Finals	Champ
	Kansas	B12	1	S	100.0	99.9	84.7	79.4	66.5	57.4	64.3
	Villanova	BE	2	S	100.0	98.7	69.3	63.8	51.2	48.8	55.8
	Miami FL	ACC	3	S	100.0	97.2	51.4	42.2	38.9	36.1	42.7
	California	P12	4	S	100.0	77.1	46.8	23.6	32.3	24.9	30.4
	Maryland	B10	5	S	100.0	88.1	63.8	29.9	39.8	31.5	37.7
	Arizona	P12	6	S	100.0	56.1	52.6	43.5	40.0	37.3	44.0
	Iowa	B10	7	S	100.0	90.0	34.4	47.2	35.9	33.1	39.5
	Colorado	P12	8	S	100.0	32.3	8.7	30.9	18.2	13.3	17.0
	Connecticut	Amer	9	S	100.0	67.7	18.4	47.8	32.4	25.0	30.5
	Temple	Amer	10	S	100.0	10.0	5.3	8.9	6.3	4.9	6.6
	Vanderbilt	SEC	11	S	52.7	45.2	47.9	38.9	35.8	33.0	39.4
	Wichita St.	MVC	11	S	47.3	42.5	45.3	36.4	33.5	30.7	36.9
	South Dakota St.	Sum	12	S	100.0	11.9	22.0	5.5	7.8	5.5	7.2
	Hawaii	BW	13	S	100.0	22.9	22.1	8.2	11.7	8.3	10.9
	Buffalo	MAC	14	S	100.0	2.8	3.1	2.1	2.1	1.5	2.1
	UNC Asheville	BSth	15	S	100.0	1.3	6.3	3.1	2.3	1.6	2.2
	Austin Peay	OVC	16	S	100.0	0.1	1.4	1.0	0.3	0.2	0.2
	WEST
	team	conf	seed	region	2nd round	3rd round	Sweet 16	Elite 8	Final Four	Finals	Champ
	Oregon	P12	1	W	100.0	99.7	64.9	48.9	44.6	34.9	30.1
	Oklahoma	B12	2	W	100.0	97.0	81.2	64.6	62.7	47.4	42.1
	Texas A&M	SEC	3	W	100.0	96.0	71.3	47.9	54.0	38.7	33.7
	Duke	ACC	4	W	100.0	92.6	68.2	62.2	52.0	42.0	36.9
	Baylor	B12	5	W	100.0	72.4	40.8	49.6	39.6	30.2	25.8
	Texas	B12	6	W	100.0	74.6	35.9	32.8	37.7	24.3	20.4
	Oregon St.	P12	7	W	100.0	35.0	14.5	23.3	21.2	12.0	9.6
	Saint Joseph's	A10	8	W	100.0	35.2	26.5	26.2	22.8	15.8	12.9
	Cincinnati	Amer	9	W	100.0	64.8	40.1	39.2	35.2	26.3	22.2
	VCU	A10	10	W	100.0	65.0	24.2	35.9	33.6	21.0	17.5
	Northern Iowa	MVC	11	W	100.0	25.4	16.3	14.6	16.9	9.1	7.2
	Yale	Ivy	12	W	100.0	27.6	21.7	27.7	20.2	13.7	11.1
	UNC Wilmington	CAA	13	W	100.0	7.4	17.8	13.4	9.1	5.5	4.2
	Green Bay	Horz	14	W	100.0	4.0	13.1	4.9	5.3	2.4	1.8
	Cal St. Bakersfield	WAC	15	W	100.0	3.0	16.8	7.8	6.6	3.1	2.3
	Holy Cross	Pat	16	W	35.9	0.1	0.5	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0
	Southern	SWAC	16	W	64.1	0.4	1.4	0.6	0.4	0.2	0.1